The regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad faces its most serious threat in years, as rebel forces close in on the capital, Damascus. The rapidly advancing insurgents, led by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have seized key towns just six miles from the capital, signaling that the โfinal stageโ of their offensive has begun.
According to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), regime troops recently withdrew from several towns in the southwestern Damascus countryside. This retreat marks a critical shift in the conflict, as opposition fighters steadily tighten their grip around Assadโs stronghold.
Rami Abdel Rahman, head of SOHR, confirmed, โRegime forces pulled out of towns in the southwestern Damascus countryside, 10 kilometers [6.2 miles] from the capital, which have been seized by local fighters.โ
The rebels move toward Damascus from the south. And reports have surfaced that Assadโs regime is scrambling to fortify its defenses.
Syrian state media dismissed rumors that Assad had fled the country, insisting he remains in Damascus. But the regimeโs actions tell a different story. Large numbers of military reinforcements have been sent to defend Homs, Syriaโs third-largest city, now at risk of falling into insurgent hands.
A Crumbling Regime and Distracted Allies
Assadโs grip on power appears increasingly tenuous. His primary allies โ Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah โ are preoccupied with their own challenges.
Russia, Assadโs most significant backer, is bogged down in its war with Ukraine. Hezbollah, once a reliable source of manpower, has been stretched thin by ongoing clashes with Israel.
Meanwhile, Iranโs network of regional proxies has been weakened by relentless Israeli airstrikes.
In a significant blow to Assadโs support system, SOHR reported that Iranโs military advisers have begun withdrawing from Syria. Fighters backed by Iran, particularly those from Afghanistan and Pakistan, have pulled back to central Syria, reducing their presence in more volatile regions. This strategic retreat leaves Assad with fewer resources to counter the insurgent push.
Rebels Seize Key Cities
The latest offensive began on November 27, with HTS at the forefront.
The group, which evolved from Al-Qaeda and is labeled a terrorist organization by the US and the UN. It has already captured critical territory, including the northern city of Aleppo and the central city of Hama. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani stated in a recent CNN interview that their goal is clear: to overthrow Assadโs regime.
If the rebels manage to capture Homs, they will sever a crucial link between Damascus and Syriaโs coastal region, where Assad enjoys significant support. This would further isolate the regime, both strategically and politically.
A Regime in Crisis
The momentum of this offensive underscores the vulnerability of Assadโs government. As the rebels advance, Assadโs forces are left scrambling, weakened by dwindling support and overstretched defenses. For the first time in years, the fall of Damascus feels like a real possibility.
While state media projects confidence, the reality on the ground paints a dire picture for Assad. His once-formidable grip on Syria is slipping, and with his allies facing their own crises, the window to turn the tide is rapidly closing.
The coming days could determine the future of Assadโs regime โ and the future of Syria itself.
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