A spent SpaceX rocket will slam into the moon, giving scientists a rare chance to study space debris as lunar missions rapidly increase. (SpaceX/Wikimedia Creative Commons)
Scientists are preparing to watch an abandoned SpaceX rocket stage slam into the moon Wednesday in what they say is a rare opportunity to study how human-made debris behaves when it strikes the lunar surface.
The accidental impact offers researchers a chance to better understand the hazards such collisions could pose as lunar exploration accelerates. It also highlights growing concerns over space traffic and the need for better disposal of spent rocket stages as governments and private companies prepare to send more astronauts, spacecraft and equipment to the moon.
The rocket’s upper stage, which launched two private lunar landers in January 2025, is expected to strike near Einstein Crater on the moon’s sunlit western limb at about 5,400 mph (8,700 kph), according to space tracking expert Bill Gray. The impact will carve a crater and eject a plume of dust and debris that scientists hope to observe with telescopes.
Gray said the eastern United States, eastern Canada and much of South America should have the best opportunity to view the event, which will occur during the early morning hours.
Scientists say the impact poses no danger to Earth or current lunar missions. Instead, it provides a controlled event that can help researchers understand how debris behaves in the moon’s low-gravity environment.
“The gravity on the moon is low, and there is no wind to blow the dust away,” Benjamin Fernando of Los Alamos National Laboratory told AP News, who is encouraging both professional and amateur astronomers to observe the impact.
“Part of the reason for our interest in this event is to figure out how much of a hazard debris impacts pose to future astronauts,” Fernando said in an email.
Fernando estimates the collision will create a crater about 90 feet (27 meters) wide and 16 feet (5 meters) deep. The crater will be too small to see from Earth but should be visible to spacecraft orbiting the moon.
NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter will capture before-and-after images of the impact site. Danuri will pass within about 2 miles (3 kilometers) of the rocket stage roughly two minutes before impact.
The impact flash itself will likely last less than a second and may be too faint to see from Earth. However, scientists expect the cloud of ejected material to rise several miles above the surface and remain visible through telescopes for several minutes.
The abandoned rocket stage measures about 40 feet (12 meters) long and weighs roughly 10,000 pounds (4,500 kilograms). It launched Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost lander and Japan-based ispace’s lunar lander on Jan. 15, 2025. Blue Ghost later became the first privately built spacecraft to complete a fully successful lunar landing, while ispace’s lander crashed during its descent.
The collision was unintentional. Space experts said the rocket stage could have avoided the moon if mission planners had directed it into an orbit around the sun after completing its mission.
The impact will mark only the second known accidental collision of a spent rocket with the moon. In 2022, a Chinese rocket stage struck the moon’s far side, leaving two overlapping craters.
Scientists say planned observations of the SpaceX impact could improve models of how debris strikes the lunar surface. Unlike meteoroids, whose impacts usually occur without warning, the rocket’s trajectory has been tracked precisely, allowing researchers to prepare instruments in advance.
The moon is expected to become increasingly crowded in the coming years as the United States, China and commercial companies expand lunar exploration. NASA’s Artemis program aims to return astronauts to the moon, while companies including SpaceX and Blue Origin are developing lunar landers for future missions.
Retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell said the latest impact is not a cause for alarm but serves as a reminder that better traffic management will become increasingly important.
“This impact will not be a problem,” McDowell said in an email. “But in a future where there are long-term bases on the moon, similar impacts would be an issue, and we need not leave rocket stages in chaotic orbits of this kind.”
About The Author
