Rodrigo Duterte—once a firebrand leader who vowed to rid the Philippines of crime through a brutal anti-drug war—found himself outmaneuvered in politics and in custody.
The former president was met by Philippine authorities as he landed in Manila from Hong Kong, where he had been rallying support for his candidates in the upcoming mid-term elections. The much-discussed warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) was already in the hands of the government, and they wasted no time in acting on it.
A frail Duterte, walking with a cane, was swiftly moved to an air force base within the airport perimeter, where a chartered jet was prepared to fly him to The Hague. His lawyers and family members protested, calling the arrest illegal and accusing the government of neglecting his fragile health.
But the once-dominant strongman was now powerless to stop what was unfolding.
From Powerhouse to Prisoner: How Did Duterte Get Here?
While in office, Duterte had forged a strong alliance with the Marcos family, particularly with Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the son of ousted dictator Ferdinand Marcos. The deal was clear: Duterte would support Bongbong’s presidential bid in 2022, and in return, his daughter, Sara Duterte, would be positioned as vice president—laying the groundwork for her own presidential run in 2028.
The plan worked.
Bongbong Marcos won by a landslide, and Sara Duterte became vice president. Duterte believed this alliance would protect him from any repercussions related to his controversial presidency, particularly the ICC’s investigation into the thousands of extrajudicial killings carried out during his war on drugs.
However, the cracks in the Duterte-Marcos alliance appeared early.
Sara Duterte’s request to head the powerful defense ministry was denied; instead, she was given the education portfolio. Meanwhile, President Marcos distanced himself from Duterte’s erratic policies—mending ties with the U.S., standing firm against China, and toning down the violent rhetoric on crime and drugs.
The political divide deepened, reaching a boiling point when reports surfaced that Sara Duterte had allegedly hired an assassin to kill Marcos if anything happened to her. This revelation shook the nation and set the stage for the ultimate betrayal.
The Marcos Counterattack
Late last year, Marcos’s allies in the lower house filed an impeachment case against Sara Duterte. It is set to go to trial in the Senate later this year. If impeached, she would be barred from running for office—shattering her presidential ambitions and further weakening the Duterte clan’s hold on power.
With the alliance shattered, Marcos saw an opportunity to neutralize his biggest threat in politics. Executing the ICC warrant against Duterte sent a strong message: no one, not even a former president, was above the law.
However, this move is not without risks.
The Dutertes still enjoy significant support in many parts of the Philippines, and protests could erupt over Duterte’s extradition. Already, Sara Duterte has condemned the government. She accused it of selling out her father to “foreign powers” and betraying Philippine sovereignty.
What’s Next?
The upcoming mid-term elections in May will be a crucial test of both clans’ influence. Can Marcos maintain his grip on power, or will the Dutertes rally their base in retaliation?
Meanwhile, the ICC also faces scrutiny. The court has struggled to enforce its rulings, with countries like the U.S. threatening its top officials. Duterte’s arrest is a significant win for international justice, but it also underscores the deeply political nature of the case.
Even China, which is currently at odds with the Philippines, issued a statement warning against politicizing ICC cases. The message was clear: what was supposed to be a pursuit of justice has now become entangled in a fierce domestic power struggle and politics.
As Duterte sits in custody, awaiting his fate in The Hague, one thing is certain—his arrest marks a turning point in Philippine politics, and the fallout is just beginning.
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