Mindanao could be plunged back into the dark ages of lengthy blackouts after grid bosses warned that the island’s power surplus is vanishing fast.
Key Takeaways
- NGCP warns Mindanao’s excess power capacity will vanish by 2028, raising fears of a repeat of the 2012 energy crisis.
- The grid has already recorded 17 yellow alerts and 4 red alerts so far in 2026 amid tightening reserves.
- Demand is catching up with supply after years of limited new capacity additions following the post-2012 coal-plant boom.
- DOE points to over 4,500 MW of planned projects (mostly renewables) through 2031 as the potential solution.
The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) has projected that Mindanao will have no excess electricity capacity left by 2028 – just two years away – as surging demand finally catches up with supply.
NGCP spokesperson Cynthia Alabanza delivered the stark warning at a Manila forum, declaring: “We are seeing that by 2028, there will be no excess (capacity). I hope NGCP’s projection is wrong.”
The revelation has sparked immediate alarm that the region could suffer a repeat of the crippling 2012 energy crisis, when rotating brownouts of several hours a day left homes, businesses and hospitals struggling amid chronic shortages.
Back then, Mindanao was heavily reliant on hydroelectric plants that faltered during dry spells, leaving the grid chronically short of baseload power. Families endured power cuts lasting up to 10 hours in some areas, factories ground to a halt and economic growth was badly hit.
Now the warning signs are flashing again. The NGCP has already logged 17 yellow alerts and four red alerts in Mindanao so far this year – far more than the one or two days of yellow alerts seen annually in recent years.
A yellow alert signals that reserves have dropped to worryingly low levels. A red alert means supply is no longer enough to meet demand, raising the spectre of forced power cuts.
“Demand has caught up again. It is starting. We are feeling the demand catching up with supply,” Alabanza said. She noted that while coal-fired plants helped stabilise the grid after 2012, little significant new capacity has come online since – leaving the system increasingly exposed.
Residents and businesses across Mindanao are already feeling the strain. Recent forced outages at major coal plants briefly tightened reserves, though some units have since returned and the grid has been able to export surplus power to the Visayas on better days.
Officials insist the current situation remains manageable under normal conditions, with available capacity still exceeding peak demand on many days. The Department of Energy has pointed to a pipeline of more than 4,500 megawatts of potential new projects – mostly renewable energy such as solar, wind and hydro – planned through 2031.
Delays in bringing those plants online could leave ordinary families facing the same long, hot nights without electricity that blighted the region more than a decade ago.
With demand rising and the clock ticking towards 2028, pressure is mounting on government and power firms to act fast – or risk turning the lights out on Mindanao once more.
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