Key Takeaways
- Timeline: The active El Niño is projected to intensify into a Very Strong category between September and December 2026, persisting into the first half of 2027.
- Primary Risks: Extended dry spells and severe drought conditions could strain agricultural output, water reservoirs, hydropower generation, and public health nationwide.
- Dual Weather Risk: While dry conditions will dominate overall, localized heavy rains, flash floods, and landslides remain a risk due to the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and active tropical cyclones—particularly along the western sections of the country.
PAGASA issued a warning of a prolonged spell of heat, dry weather, and mounting pressure on its water supplies as El Niño strengthens across the Pacific.
The state weather bureau said Wednesday that a Strong El Niño is already active and could intensify into a Very Strong episode between September and December 2026 — potentially lasting through the first half of 2027.
The warning puts farmers, water managers, power providers and local governments on notice as the country faces the prospect of months of rainfall deficits and worsening drought conditions.
But PAGASA also cautioned against a dangerous misunderstanding: El Niño does not mean the rain will simply disappear.
Dry conditions could hit farms and food supplies
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said the climate phenomenon typically brings warmer temperatures and below-normal rainfall across much of the country.
That combination could lead to prolonged dry spells and drought, threatening agricultural production and putting additional pressure on water resources.
The potential damage extends beyond the fields.
PAGASA identified several sectors that could be affected by worsening conditions, such as agriculture and food security, water supply and irrigation, energy production, public health, and livelihoods and the wider economy.
The weather bureau urged government agencies, climate-sensitive industries and the public to begin conservation and mitigation measures immediately rather than waiting for the full effects of the phenomenon.
DOST Secretary Renato U. Solidum Jr. emphasized the importance of using climate information before a crisis develops.
“Climate information must be utilized before a crisis strikes,” Solidum said, urging authorities to adjust farming schedules and prepare communities, infrastructure and essential services ahead of worsening conditions.
Rain will still fall — sometimes heavily
Despite the looming dry spell, PAGASA stressed that the country can still experience intense rainfall. The ongoing Southwest Monsoon, locally known as Habagat, and active tropical cyclones may continue to produce short-term bursts of heavy rain, particularly over the western sections of the Philippines.
That means communities could face an unusual contrast: extended periods of dry weather interrupted by sudden downpours capable of triggering flooding in vulnerable areas.
The presence of heavy rain, therefore, should not be mistaken for evidence that El Niño has ended.
PAGASA’s earlier climate outlook similarly noted that above-normal rainfall may occur over western parts of the country during the Southwest Monsoon season, even while other areas experience rainfall deficits.
Mindanao urged to prepare early
The warning is particularly relevant to communities in Mindanao, where PAGASA officials have already called for preparations ahead of the expected dry period.
In July, PAGASA Mindanao Weather Services Chief Anianita R. Fortich said the most significant effects could emerge as the northeast monsoon, or Amihan, begins — a period when rainfall naturally decreases across much of the country.
If very strong El Niño conditions coincide with that seasonal shift, some areas could experience significantly reduced rainfall.
Fortich described how prolonged dryness can progress through several stages:
- Meteorological drought — rainfall remains below normal for an extended period.
- Agricultural drought — soil moisture becomes insufficient for crops.
- Hydrological drought — water levels in rivers, reservoirs and other sources decline.
- Socio-economic drought — livelihoods, businesses and economic activity begin to suffer.
The warning underscores why early water conservation and agricultural planning matter, particularly for communities dependent on rainfall and irrigation.
Authorities urged to act before the crisis
PAGASA Administrator Dr. Nathaniel V. Servando said the bureau would continue monitoring the phenomenon and providing science-based forecasts to national and local government agencies.
The agency also highlighted its localized climate projections and CliMap platform, which can provide historical climate data and projections down to the municipal level.
That information could help local officials determine where to focus water conservation, farming adjustments and contingency planning.
The message is straightforward: conserve water, monitor official advisories, and prepare for potentially prolonged dry conditions. But remain alert when the rain arrives.
The Philippines may be heading into a period of serious water stress — without escaping the threat of sudden, heavy rainfall. The dry spell may last months. The next downpour could still arrive within hours.
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