Predicting the Next Pope? History Urges Caution.
VATICAN CITY — The death of Pope Francis at the age of 88 has once again drawn the world’s attention to the Vatican, where the College of Cardinals is preparing for its sacred, secretive task: electing a new pontiff.
But observers would do well to remember a wry Italian adage: Chi entra Papa, esce cardinale — “He who enters a conclave as pope, exits as a cardinal.” The phrase is more than a warning; it is a reflection of the unpredictable nature of papal elections, which often defy expectations.
Even so, within ecclesiastical and Vatican-watching circles, a number of names have emerged as papabili — potential popes. These candidates, though listed in alphabetical order, vary in theology, temperament, and geopolitical resonance.
Jean-Marc Aveline
Archbishop of Marseille, France, 66
Born in French Algeria to Spanish immigrants, Aveline has spent most of his life in Marseille — a city symbolic of intercultural dialogue and migration. His pastoral warmth, intellectual rigor, and theological alignment with Pope Francis have positioned him as a compelling figure, especially among those who wish to see continuity with the outgoing pontiff.
Aveline’s critics, however, point to his limited command of Italian — a possible liability in navigating the complex politics of the Roman Curia. If elected, he would be the first French pope since the turbulent Avignon papacies of the 14th century.
Péter Erdő
Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, Hungary, 72
A canon law expert and former president of the Council of European Bishops’ Conferences, Erdő brings both gravitas and continental reach. Long viewed as a standard-bearer for theological conservatism, he has nonetheless avoided direct conflict with Francis and shown pragmatism in navigating a changing Church.
Yet his stance during the 2015 migrant crisis — in apparent tension with the pope’s call for Christian hospitality — may trouble some cardinals. Still, his fluency in multiple languages and deep connections across Europe and Africa strengthen his candidacy.
Mario Grech
Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops, Malta, 68
Grech’s evolution from a cautious bishop in Gozo to one of the Vatican’s foremost voices on synodal reform illustrates his alignment with Francis’ vision of a more listening, dialogical Church. Known for his consensus-seeking approach, Grech is seen as a bridge-builder with broad recognition inside the Curia.
However, his progressive views — particularly on LGBT inclusion and family issues — have drawn fire from conservative quarters, making his candidacy a test of the Church’s appetite for sustained reform.
Juan José Omella
Archbishop of Barcelona, Spain, 79
An advocate of social justice and pastoral care, Omella epitomizes Francis’ “Church of the poor.” His missionary work in Africa and leadership in Spain’s Catholic charity sector reflect a commitment to the marginalized.
However, his age and close association with the current papacy may weigh against him if the conclave opts for a generational reset or seeks distance from recent controversies — including the Spanish Church’s handling of sexual abuse revelations.
Pietro Parolin
Vatican Secretary of State, Italy, 70
The most prominent Vatican diplomat of his generation, Parolin has long been considered a frontrunner. He played key roles in brokering Vatican relations with Vietnam and China, though his China deal — allowing Beijing a say in bishop appointments — remains deeply divisive.
Soft-spoken and unflappable, Parolin offers experience and continuity. Yet, some question whether his low-key persona and limited pastoral background fit the moment, particularly after a papacy marked by bold rhetoric and global outreach.
Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle
Pro-Prefect for Evangelization, Philippines, 67
Tagle, widely dubbed the “Asian Francis,” has been a charismatic force in the global Church. A former head of Caritas Internationalis and a favorite among progressives, he brings pastoral compassion, theological acumen, and broad international experience.
His handling of internal strife at Caritas, however, remains a cloud over his candidacy, even if he was not directly implicated. Nevertheless, a Tagle papacy would mark a historic first for Asia — and for the world’s third-largest Catholic nation.
Joseph Tobin
Archbishop of Newark, United States, 72
Tobin’s rise from Detroit to the Vatican and then to the helm of two major American archdioceses speaks to his stature within the U.S. Church. Known for his pastoral sensibility and inclusive tone, particularly toward LGBTQ Catholics, he would bring a distinctly American mix of grit and grace to the role.
Still, despite his global ties and fluency in several languages, his nationality may be a hurdle in a Church wary of appearing politicized — especially amid American polarization.
Peter Turkson
Chancellor of the Pontifical Academies of Sciences and Social Sciences, Ghana, 76
A veteran of Vatican offices and a champion of climate justice and economic reform, Turkson has long been among the most visible African voices in the global Church. His origins — the son of a miner and a market vendor — have shaped his moral vision and communicative authenticity.
Despite earlier speculation around his papal viability, Turkson has downplayed his ambitions. But his name resurfaces persistently, particularly among those seeking to highlight the Church’s demographic and spiritual shift toward the Global South.
Matteo Maria Zuppi
Archbishop of Bologna, Italy, 69
Zuppi’s ascent from a street-level priest in Rome to the top of the Italian bishops’ conference has been propelled by his empathy and diplomacy. A key player in the peace-focused Sant’Egidio Community, he has also emerged as Francis’ trusted envoy — most recently tasked with outreach amid the war in Ukraine.
His progressive leanings, combined with his Italian roots and Roman savvy, make him a potent candidate. Should the conclave seek a “Francis 2.0” with a native command of the Vatican’s intricacies, Zuppi may emerge as the surprise consensus choice.
A Church at a Crossroads
In an age defined by geopolitical instability, internal polarization, and profound cultural shifts, the Church faces a decision with consequences that stretch far beyond its one billion members. Will the conclave look to extend Francis’ legacy — or shift direction?
As ever, predictions remain fraught. But one thing is certain: the white smoke will rise, and with it, a new chapter will begin — in ways few dare to predict. (With reports from Reuters)
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