MANILA, Philippines — Filipinos may see between 2 and 8 tropical cyclones develop or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the first half of 2026, according to the state weather bureau PAGASA.
In its seasonal outlook, PAGASA said tropical cyclone activity from January to June 2026 is expected to be relatively low in the early months, with a gradual increase toward the onset of the rainy season.
Few storms early in the year
From January to April, PAGASA expects little to no cyclone activity, with some months possibly passing without a single storm entering the PAR. Historically, these months fall outside the peak typhoon season, as the country is usually influenced by the northeast monsoon (amihan) and later by the inter-monsoon period.
“Cyclone formation during the first quarter is generally rare,” PAGASA said, noting that any system that may develop during this time is more likely to be weak or short-lived.
Activity may pick up by May and June
Weather officials said the likelihood of tropical cyclones increases in May and June, when 1 to 2 storms per month may either form within or cross into the PAR. These months often mark the transition toward the southwest monsoon (habagat), which can enhance rainfall even without a direct typhoon hit.
Even weak systems, PAGASA warned, can still bring heavy rains, flooding, and landslides, especially in low-lying and disaster-prone areas.
Part of a broader regional pattern
Globally, most northern hemisphere cyclone basins — including the western North Pacific and the North Atlantic — typically see limited activity in the first half of the year, as their official seasons begin around May or June.
Meanwhile, some cyclones that may form early in 2026 in the southern hemisphere, such as in the South Pacific or Indian Ocean, will be part of the 2025–2026 cyclone season in those regions and are unlikely to directly affect the Philippines.
PAGASA urges preparedness
While the projected number of storms is modest, PAGASA stressed that forecast ranges do not rule out high-impact weather events, especially rain-induced disasters.
The agency advised local government units and communities to continue disaster preparedness and early warning measures, particularly as climate variability continues to affect rainfall patterns.
PAGASA is expected to release updated forecasts as the year progresses and as large-scale climate drivers become clearer.
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