When will the end come for humanity? Will it be through a nuclear holocaust, surpassing critical climate thresholds, the rise of AI-powered robots, or an asteroid reminiscent of Don’t Look Up? This haunting question fuels countless research papers, debates, and late-night social media rants.

But according to one theorist, humanity—now 8.2 billion strong—stands at a pivotal juncture, teetering between authoritarian collapse and a potential era of superabundance.

Dr. Nafeez Ahmed, bestselling author and a distinguished fellow at the UK-based Schumacher Institute for Sustainable Systems, argues that industrial civilization faces an “inevitable” decline. He proposes a radical transformation into what could become a far more advanced “postmaterialist” civilization fueled by superabundant, clean energy.

However, this leap forward could be derailed by authoritarianism and climate inaction.

“Industrial civilization is rapidly declining. The challenge is ensuring this decline doesn’t derail the emergence of a superior ‘life-cycle’ for humanity,” Ahmed stated. His findings were recently published in the journal Foresight.

A Now-or-Never Moment for Humanity

Gaya Herrington, a researcher in sustainability at consulting giant KPMG, shares Ahmed’s sense of urgency.

“We live in a historic now-or-never moment,” Herrington told The Independent. “What we do in the next five years will determine our wellbeing for the rest of the century.”

Ahmed’s research traces the life-cycle of civilizations through four stages: growth, stability, decline, and transformation. He believes industrial civilization is firmly in the decline phase. Rising authoritarianism and the fossil fuel industry’s influence, both major drivers of climate change, threaten to derail the transition to a sustainable future.

Central to this decline is the decreasing global energy return on investment (EROI) from fossil fuels, underscoring the urgent need to pivot toward clean energy and innovative technologies like artificial intelligence, 3D printing, and lab-grown agriculture. These advances could lead to what Ahmed terms “networked superabundance,” where resources are abundant and equitably distributed through decentralized systems.

However, Ahmed warns that the old industrial hierarchies cannot govern this new paradigm.

“Humanity has an amazing opportunity to create superabundant energy, food, transport, and knowledge without harming the Earth,” he explained. “But failing to govern these emerging capabilities responsibly could lead to regression or collapse. The rise of far-right authoritarian regimes globally amplifies this risk.”

Humanity and Behavioral Change

Dr. Daniel Brooks, a professor at the University of Toronto and author of A Darwinian Survival Guide, strikes a cautiously optimistic note.

“The danger is great, and time is short, but humans can drive change,” Brooks said. While he believes utopia is unattainable, he dismisses fears of total apocalypse. Even if technological civilization collapses around 2050, he argues, humanity will adapt and rebuild.

Brooks stresses that technology alone cannot save us.

“The accelerating pace of global climate change is outstripping technological advancements. The solution lies in behavioral change,” he wrote. “Not electing anti-science authoritarians would be a good start.”

Planetary Boundaries Breached

Ahmed’s warnings come as scientists increasingly sound the alarm about Earth’s dire condition. Last year, researchers reported that six of Earth’s nine planetary boundaries—thresholds defining a “safe operating space for humanity”—have been crossed. Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, described the planet as “unwell,” warning that continued transgressions could lead to irreversible damage.

To minimize climate tipping points and maintain planetary stability, achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is crucial. But the road ahead is fraught with challenges. Multiple wars, extreme inequality, and the rapid evolution of transformative technologies have brought humanity to a critical juncture.

“We have no time left for complacency or defeatism,” Amnesty International Secretary General Agnès Callamard said recently. “We have a shared responsibility to salvage the world for future generations.”

A Choice Between Collapse and Evolution

Humanity stands on the precipice of a monumental choice. Will we embrace the emerging possibilities of clean energy and technological innovation, fostering an era of abundance and sustainability? Or will we succumb to the forces of authoritarianism and climate inaction, plunging into chaos and decline?

The stakes have never been higher, but the potential rewards—a giant leap in human evolution—are unparalleled. It’s up to us to determine which path we take.

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Dan Mitchell

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