MANILA, Philippines – The Philippines’ debt stock is projected to breach ₱19 trillion by the end of 2026, as the Marcos administration leans heavily on borrowings to fund infrastructure, social services, and economic recovery.
Budget documents show the national government’s outstanding debt could reach ₱19.057 trillion next year, up from the ₱17.359 trillion expected at the close of 2025.
As of June 2025, the country’s obligations had already ballooned to ₱17.267 trillion, a 2.1% jump from May and 11% higher than the ₱15.483 trillion recorded in June 2024.
The upward climb has been consistent: debt stood at ₱16.051 trillion by end-2024, nearly ₱1.4 trillion higher than in 2023.
Debt breakdown
For 2026, domestic debt is expected to make up the bulk at ₱13.28 trillion, while foreign loans will account for ₱5.78 trillion.
The government plans to borrow ₱2.682 trillion in 2026 — ₱2.055 trillion from the local market and ₱627.1 billion from external sources. This includes:
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₱1.995 trillion in fixed-rate treasury bonds
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₱60 billion in treasury bills
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₱263.3 billion in program loans
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₱61.7 billion in project loans
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₱302.1 billion in foreign bonds and other inflows
Long-term target
Finance Secretary Ralph Recto earlier warned the country’s debt could reach ₱20 trillion by the end of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s term in 2028. Still, the administration is sticking to its fiscal consolidation plan, which aims to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio below 60% by that year.
The Marcos government is banking on higher revenues to keep debt manageable. Revenue collections are projected to hit ₱4.983 trillion in 2026, up 10.2% from the ₱4.520 trillion target this year. The boost will come from digitalized tax systems, better VAT collection, and non-tax income such as dividends and privatization.
The fiscal deficit is also expected to narrow to 5.3% of GDP in 2026 from 5.5% this year, and down to 4.3% by 2028.
Government spending is projected at ₱6.63 trillion next year, equivalent to 21.5% of GDP, with infrastructure outlays maintained at 5–6% of GDP.
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