EXPLAINER | From G2 To G1: Why Asia Should Worry About A China-Dominated World

Talk of a “G2” — a world led jointly by the United States and China — has resurfaced ahead of Donald Trump’s planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

But for many Asian countries, the deeper concern is no longer G2.

It is the possibility of G1 — a world where China stands alone at the top.

What is the G2 — and why are Asian countries uneasy?

The idea of a G2 refers to a global order dominated by just two powers: the US and China. While never formalized, Trump’s repeated references to such an arrangement have reignited fears among Asian middle powers that their interests could be sidelined.

Japan, India, and other US allies in Asia are particularly alarmed.

Former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe’s adviser, Professor Tomohiko Taniguchi, has called a G2 world “nightmarish,” warning it could pull Japan into China’s sphere of influence.

And Indian officials have expressed similar unease, wary of being boxed in by decisions made over their heads.

Still, some regional leaders argue the fears may be premature. Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan has described current US-China engagement as more of a tactical pause than a true strategic reset, noting the deep and growing distrust between the two powers.

So why are analysts now talking about G1?

Because evidence is mounting that US influence in Asia is declining — fast.

The Lowy Asia Power Index 2025 shows the United States recording its lowest-ever score, with Trump-era policies described as a “net negative” for US power in the region. Former NATO official Jamie Shea has gone further, warning that Washington is committing “soft power suicide.”

At the same time, China is pulling ahead — not just economically, but technologically, militarily, and environmentally.

The concern is no longer whether China will rival the US in Asia, but whether it will outgrow the need for rivals at all.

How is China pulling ahead?

1. Technology and industry

China is racing ahead in sectors critical to the future such as electric vehicles (EVs); renewable energy (solar, wind, batteries); pharmaceuticals; and advanced manufacturing and robotics.

One striking example is Xiaomi, once known only for smartphones. After facing US tariffs in 2021, the company pivoted aggressively into EVs. By 2024, it unveiled the Xiaomi SU7 — a car faster than a Porsche Taycan and with longer range than a Tesla Model S.

European carmakers, once accusing China of intellectual property theft, are now asking Beijing to share its technology instead.

2. Energy and AI

While the US still leads in advanced AI chips, China dominates in energy capacity, the fuel that powers AI systems.

China produces so much electricity that its grid struggles to store it. In contrast, US electricity prices are rising faster than inflation as utilities scramble to meet AI-driven demand.

This energy advantage could prove decisive in the long run.

3. Military capabilities

China’s military modernization is accelerating.

Its third aircraft carrier, Fujian, uses electromagnetic launch systems — a capability previously exclusive to the US Navy. And Chinese-made PL-15 missiles used by Pakistan reportedly performed well against India’s French-built Rafale jets.

Analysts believe China may be the first military to deploy humanoid robots in combat.

4. Environmental recovery

China has also made major gains in environmental management:

Since 2001, it has reforested an area roughly the size of Japan.

Once-notorious air pollution in Beijing has eased dramatically, while global attention has shifted to severe air quality crises in cities like Delhi.

But doesn’t China have serious economic problems?

Yes — and they are real.

China is grappling with a troubled real estate sector, heavy debt, and “involution,” or destructive competition that drives down prices and profits

However, analysts caution against overstating these problems. Economic cycles are normal, and China’s supply-side strengths — technology, logistics, scale, and planning — remain formidable.

As one Western executive put it, China is still the “fitness center of global manufacturing.”

Why should Asia be worried?

Because China has already shown it is willing to use power coercively:

• Australia faced trade punishment after calling for a COVID-19 origins investigation.

• South Korea was hit economically for allowing a US missile system.

• Japan has faced diplomatic pressure under its new prime minister.

• Beijing has threatened to weaponize rare earth exports.

Even large countries feel the pressure. Smaller states feel it more.

• Indonesia is considering Chinese fighter jets despite disputes in the Natuna Sea.

• Malaysian officials quietly complain about dumped Chinese industrial goods.

The bottom line

A G2 world — shared US-China leadership — may actually be the best-case scenario for Asia, because it preserves balance.

The real danger is G1: a world where China dominates without a counterweight.

That future is no longer theoretical. And if it arrives, Asia may find itself wishing for a balance of power it once feared.

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Daily Sun Chronicle News Desk

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