Filipinos’ Growing Support for ICC Investigation Signals Duterte’s Waning Influence

Support for the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) probe into the deadly drug war led by former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is gaining momentum among Filipinos, potentially marking a decline in his populist appeal ahead of the 2025 midterm elections.

Analysts suggest this shift reflects changing public attitudes toward human rights and accountability.

Duterte, who is running for mayor of Davao City once again, recently made waves by daring ICC investigators to “hurry up before I die.” The former president made the dare while testifying before a House committee investigating his administration’s controversial anti-narcotics campaign.

He also startled lawmakers with a confession about using a vigilante “death squad” to enforce his drug war during his previous mayoral term.

Currently, Duterte faces investigations on multiple fronts—by both the Philippine Congress and the ICC—for alleged crimes tied to a campaign that left over 12,000 people dead, according to human rights groups.

Public opinion, which once heavily backed his tough-on-crime policies, now appears to be shifting.

Declining Public Support for the Drug War

While Duterte’s drug war once enjoyed overwhelming approval, with a 2017 survey showing an 88% approval rating, attitudes are evolving. Cleve Arguelles, a political scientist and president of WR Numero, explained the shift:

“The change in the sociopolitical environment has heightened public awareness of abuse of power and human rights violations. A climate of fear no longer dominates, and new information from public investigations is reshaping perceptions,” Arguelles said.

In March, WR Numero released survey results showing that 59% of Filipinos support the ICC’s investigation, and 58% agree that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration should cooperate with it.

Marcos Jr. has notably distanced himself from Duterte’s hardline tactics, describing his drug policy as “radically different.” Gary Ador Dionisio, dean of De La Salle–College of Saint Benilde’s School of Diplomacy and Governance, pointed out that this contrast is resonating with the public:

“Although drugs remain a hot-button issue, especially in urban poor areas, the public now calls for adherence to the rule of law,” Dionisio said, citing the public’s demand for accountability in cases like the death of 17-year-old Kian de los Santos and other minors.

Duterte’s Base and the ICC Probe

Despite growing support for the ICC investigation, political scientist Matthew David Ordoñez of De La Salle University cautioned that this does not necessarily mean Duterte’s base is turning against him.

“An investigation does not equate to guilt. Some supporters may believe the probe will ultimately vindicate Duterte,” Ordoñez said.

The Philippine government has taken a cautious stance, stating it will neither block nor cooperate with the ICC but remains bound by obligations to international law enforcement. Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin explained that if Interpol issues a red notice, Philippine authorities would be obliged to act on it.

Dionisio described this position as a “double-edged sword” for Marcos Jr., who must balance international legal obligations with domestic political considerations. Cooperation with the ICC could set a precedent that might later be used against Marcos Jr. himself, given the unresolved human rights cases tied to his family’s past.

Implications for the 2025 Midterm Elections

The drug war’s legacy could influence the Duterte camp’s prospects in the upcoming elections. Senate and House hearings into drug war abuses have given Duterte a platform to defend his policies and rally his base. However, they have also exposed his vulnerabilities to a broader audience.

Dionisio noted that Duterte’s fiery rhetoric during the hearings aimed to energize his supporters, but he remains under scrutiny:

“The challenge for congressional committees is to counter Duterte’s bravado with clear evidence of wrongdoing in his drug war,” Dionisio said.

For Arguelles, the ICC investigation may complicate Duterte’s bid for a political comeback but won’t necessarily sway the broader electorate.

“Filipino voters have competing priorities. While accountability is important, it’s only one of many considerations when casting their votes,” he said.

As the ICC probe progresses and domestic investigations continue, the extent to which Duterte’s populist appeal endures in a changing political climate remains to be seen.