IPIL, Zamboanga Sibugay — The political alliance that delivered one of the biggest landslide victories in Philippine history is now fractured beyond repair. In an unexpected twist, however, Vice President Sara Duterte — once President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s most powerful ally — has become the strongest reason many Filipinos are unwilling to support calls for his ouster.

Despite cascading corruption scandals and mounting questions about competence inside the Marcos administration, surveys and political fieldwork show the same pattern: a critical mass of Filipinos oppose removing Marcos because they fear a Duterte restoration even more.

This reality is quietly reshaping the country’s political landscape.

A Fear Larger Than Corruption Scandals

Flood control anomalies. Billions siphoned off BIR letters of authority. Agriculture procurement mess. DOTr controversies. Marcos is weathering scandal after scandal — the kind that would have crippled earlier administrations.

But the destabilizing energy one would expect has not materialized.

Political analysts point to a single factor: the constitutional line of succession.

If Marcos falls, Sara Duterte becomes president.

For many Filipinos, that scenario is even more alarming than the status quo.

“There is frustration with Marcos, yes. But fear is a stronger political emotion,” a veteran political strategist noted. “People fear a Duterte comeback more than they dislike Marcos’ governance.”

Sara Duterte: The Shadow of the Duterte Era

The anxiety traces back to the hallmarks of the Duterte presidency:

• the drug war’s killings

• militarized policymaking

• attacks on media and dissent

• volatile foreign policy

• a culture of intimidation

To a broad swath of the public — especially civil society, church organizations, the urban middle class, and the business sector — Sara Duterte represents a possible return to that brand of governance.

Marcos may be viewed as weak or indecisive, but Duterte is seen as punitive, authoritarian, and vengeful.

The political logic becomes simple: keeping Marcos in power prevents Sara from inheriting Malacañang.

An Unspoken “Lesser Evil” Choice

Political operators privately admit that a “greater evil calculus” is driving the sentiment. You remove Marcos, you install Duterte. That’s the dilemma.

Coalition leaders, business groups, and even some anti-Marcos activists acknowledge an uncomfortable reality:
Marcos has become the de facto buffer against a Duterte resurgence.

This is the same survival dynamic that once kept Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in office: most people cannot trust Vice President Noli de Castro, the perceived alternative.

A Tale of Two Bases: Weak vs. Hardened

Marcos has no ideological base — only transactional allies.

But Sara Duterte has something far more durable:

• a fiercely loyal online army

• Mindanao’s political machinery

• remnants of her father’s police-military influence

• an organized ground network built from her 2022 campaign

A Marcos ouster would ignite this machinery overnight. For many Filipinos, mostly unaligned, that is a risk they are unwilling to take.

The Succession Nightmare

Within policy circles, officers whisper about a “succession nightmare scenario.” A Duterte takeover could mean:

• the revival of the drug war

• retribution against political enemies

• a purge of the bureaucracy

• a pivot back to China

• the erosion of what remains of press freedom

Whatever criticisms are hurled at Marcos — incompetence, corruption, nepotism — they do not outweigh the fear of returning to a governance style marked by violence and intimidation.

From Kingmaker to Limiting Factor

In 2022, Sara Duterte boosted Marcos into power. Three years after, she is the very reason many Filipinos want him to stay.

It is an irony not lost on insiders.

The Marcos camp has quietly amplified the message: “Remove Marcos and you get Duterte.”

The framing is effective. It turns Duterte — not the opposition — into the biggest political deterrent against destabilization.

What This Means Moving Forward

The Marcos-Duterte alliance is gone. The breakup is public, bitter, and accelerating. Yet their fates remain entangled by the Constitution.

Marcos survives not because he inspires trust, but because the person waiting in the wings inspires fear.

In a country where political change is often driven by outrage, Sara Duterte has become the unintended stabilizer of the very administration she is trying to destroy.

For better or worse, the firewall protecting Marcos is the daughter of the man who once paved his way to power.

About The Author

Antonio Manaytay

Antonio Manaytay is a journalist, editor, and pastor reporting for Rappler and leading the Daily Sun Chronicle. A 2024 Klima Fellow, he covers climate, governance, and grassroots resilience in the Zamboanga Peninsula.

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