As the summer heat intensifies, so does the country’s energy challenge.
A new report by the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) warns that Luzon and Visayas may face thinning power reserves by June 2025, with Luzon potentially hitting critical red alert levels. In contrast, Mindanao is expected to have a steady surplus—enough to not only meet its own needs but also export power to struggling neighboring grids.
The fourth installment of the “Philippine Power Outlook: Reviewing the Adequacy of Power Supply from April to June 2025”, released on April 3 by ICSC, paints a familiar but urgent picture: summer demand spikes aren’t new, but recurring power plant outages continue to expose the fragility of the country’s grid system—especially in the second quarter of each year.
“High electricity demand during the hot and dry months is expected,” said Jephraim Manansala, ICSC’s Chief Data Scientist and co-author of the report. “But it’s the recurring forced outages of baseload power plants that really tip the grid into crisis.”
This year’s trouble signs are already showing. On March 5, the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) raised the first yellow alert for Luzon. The culprit? Seven coal plants offline and three more running below full capacity, slashing 2,495 MW from the grid in one day.
“These unplanned outages, along with plants operating at reduced capacities, break the fragile balance between supply and demand—especially during peak hours,” Manansala warned.
Energy Challenge: A Tale of Three Grids
The report analyzes projected power supply margins for Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. It uses data from the NGCP and Department of Energy (DOE).
Here’s how the grids are expected to perform:
Luzon: Danger Zone by June
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April: Normal reserves
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May: Yellow alerts possible
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June: Red alerts likely due to reduced coal generation (down by 842 MW)
Luzon is also expected to supply the Visayas grid with 250 MW via the high-voltage DC link from late March to early June. But come June, it may have to cut exports just to keep its own lights on.
Visayas: Walking a Tightrope
Visayas could maintain normal reserves through Q2, but only if Luzon and Mindanao keep feeding it power. If Luzon pulls the plug in June, yellow alerts may follow.
What makes Visayas tricky is its layout. It’s actually a patchwork of five major islands linked by transmission lines of varying capacities. Yet, it’s treated as a single grid in national planning.
“This one-size-fits-all approach masks local vulnerabilities,” said Manansala. “A more granular monitoring system could help avoid crises—like the Panay Island blackouts in January 2024—by allowing quicker and more targeted interventions.”
Mindanao: From Underdog to Backbone
Once viewed as the weakest grid, Mindanao is now leading the pack.
Thanks to a healthy supply of generation—much of it renewable. Mindanao is expected to maintain stable reserves through June, even while exporting up to 450 MW to Visayas. And if push comes to shove, it can cut back exports to preserve its own grid stability.
What’s Needed to Keep the Lights On?
ICSC emphasized two key priorities:
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Deliver new power capacity on time – Most upcoming power plants are renewables, and they are vital to meet growing demand.
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Minimize forced outages – Existing power plants must strictly follow the Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP) to avoid unplanned breakdowns that could trigger widespread disruptions.
“The stakes are high,” Manansala said. “Our energy future doesn’t just depend on adding more power—it depends on smarter planning, better coordination, and sticking to the playbook.”
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