PAGASA Warns of Looming Drought in 12 Areas as Strong El Niño May Prolong Dry Conditions
Eleven provinces and one city across southern Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao could be experiencing drought by the end of November as a strong to very strong El Niño continues to impact the tropical Pacific, the state weather bureau said.
In its latest climate outlook, PAGASA has issued a warning that continued below normal rainfall could see more communities exposed to increasingly dry conditions over the coming months.
The areas which may be experiencing drought are Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Capiz, Negros Oriental, Leyte, Samar, Siquijor, Southern Leyte, Misamis Oriental and the City of Isabela in Basilan.
Tacloban City (Leyte) and Cagayan de Oro City (Misamis Oriental) are also within the geographic area covered by the forecast.
Beyond those areas, PAGASA said 57 other areas may experience dry spells and 11 areas may experience dry conditions by the end of November.
The dryness is being blamed by the Met Office on the ongoing strong to very strong El Niño which is due to peak in December 2026 and will continue through Q2 2027.
The extended weather event could see further reductions in rainfall across a number of areas, with the potential knock-on effects for water availability, agriculture and a number of other sectors which are reliant on regular rainfall.
Below-normal rainfall across the country
PAGASA is expecting way below normal rainfall for November in Metro Manila, Northern Luzon, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro, parts of Central Luzon, Calabarzon, the Bicol Region and Palawan.
Meanwhile the majority of the areas of southern Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao are likely to see below normal rainfall.
The temp outlook also points to quite a bit of variation across the country.
Temps in the lowlands of Mindanao could be as high as 38 degrees C and the plains of N. and C. Luzon could see temps in excess of 37 degrees C.
In contrast the mountain areas of the Cordillera could be as cold as 13 degrees C and mountain communities in Mindanao could be below 15 degrees C.
How PAGASA classifies drought conditions
PAGASA differentiates between drought, dry spells and dry conditions according to the severity and length of the rainfall deficit.
Drought is defined as rainfall being at least 60% below normal for 3 consecutive months or at least 20% below normal for 5 consecutive months.
A dry spell is three consecutive months of below average rainfall, a dry condition is two consecutive months of below average rainfall.
The distinctions are important as protracted periods of rainfall deficit can exacerbate water shortages and put further pressure on agricultural output and domestic water supplies.
El Niño is expected to continue into Q2 2027 and the latest outlook points to the prospect of a prolonged period of rainfall deficits in various parts of the Philippines.
The emerging situation highlights the need to be monitoring the rainfall and to be in a position to put in place water management and agricultural measures prior to the possibility of a prolonged dry period.
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