Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is now facing trial before the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged crimes against humanity linked to his brutal war on drugs.
The ICC, based in The Hague, is investigating the thousands of extrajudicial killings Duterte allegedly orchestrated between 1 November 2011 and 16 March 2019 .
While Duterte maintains his innocence, his chances of acquittal depend on several key legal and political factors. Can he escape conviction? Or is he destined to become the first Filipino leader found guilty by the ICC?
The Case Against Duterte: A Mountain of Evidence?
The ICC’s case against Duterte is built on three major pillars:
-
Extrajudicial Killings โ Official government records place the death toll from Duterteโs anti-drug campaign at over 6,000. However, human rights groups estimate the real number to be between 12,000 and 30,000, with most victims coming from poor communities.
-
State Responsibility โ The prosecution argues that Duterte ordered or encouraged the killings, citing his public statements where he seemingly endorsed police and vigilante violence. His infamous โKill them allโ and โMy only sin is extrajudicial killingsโ remarks could be used against him.
-
Failure of Domestic Justice โ The ICC only intervenes when a country fails to investigate or prosecute crimes on its own. Justice Secretary Jesus Crispin Remulla recently admitted that 95% of drug war deaths had no police records, reinforcing the argument that the Philippines failed to provide justice.
With these factors in play, Duterteโs defense team faces an uphill battle in disproving the ICCโs claims.
Possible Defense Strategies
Duterteโs legal team is expected to use the following strategies to argue for his acquittal:
1. Challenging ICC Jurisdiction
Duterte’s first line of defense is to question whether the ICC has the right to prosecute him. The Philippines withdrew from the Rome Statute (which established the ICC) in 2019, and Duterteโs lawyers argue that the court no longer has jurisdiction over him.
However, the ICC has countered that crimes committed while the Philippines was still a member (2011-2019) fall within its authority, making this a weak defense.
2. Denial of Direct Responsibility
Duterte may claim that he never directly ordered the killings and that rogue police officers or vigilantes acted on their own. His legal team could argue that any violent language he used in public speeches was merely political rhetoric.
However, proving this claim will be difficult, especially given the testimony of former police officers and whistleblowers who claim they were ordered to carry out killings.
3. Asserting Domestic Investigations
Duterte’s defense may argue that the Philippines is capable of investigating the drug war deaths, making ICC intervention unnecessary. However, with only a handful of convictions related to drug war killings, this argument may fail to convince the court.
4. Political Motivations and Western Bias
Duterte’s supporters claim that the case is politically motivated, pushed by Western nations and human rights groups critical of his administration. While this argument may sway public opinion, it holds little weight in a court of law, where evidence, not political narratives, will determine the verdict.
The Challenges Duterte Faces at ICC
Even with these defense strategies, Duterte still faces major obstacles:
- Strong International Pressure โ The ICC is under pressure to show that it can hold powerful leaders accountable, especially after prosecuting figures like Sudanโs Omar al-Bashir.
- Witness Testimonies โ If whistleblowers from law enforcement testify against Duterte, it could significantly weaken his defense.
- Precedents from Other Cases โ The ICC has convicted other leaders for state-sponsored violence, such as Congolese warlord Thomas Lubanga. If the court follows the same pattern, Duterte could face a conviction.
ICC Verdict: Acquital?
Duterteโs best hope for acquittal rests on challenging ICC jurisdiction and denying direct responsibility for the killings. However, given the overwhelming evidence, international pressure, and failure of the Philippine justice system, his chances of walking free remain slim.
If convicted, Duterte could face a lengthy prison sentence. Although enforcement remains a question, as the ICC does not have its own police force. His allies may also push for diplomatic efforts to prevent his imprisonment.
For now, the former presidentโs fate rests in the hands of the ICC judgesโand the world is watching.
About The Author
